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IDACORP INC (IDA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered EPS of $0.70 (+14.8% YoY) and net income of $37.9M, driven by higher base rates, 2.6% customer growth, and favorable usage; FY 2024 EPS reached $5.50 (+7.0% YoY) .
  • Management initiated FY 2025 EPS guidance at $5.65–$5.85, assuming $60–$77M of additional ADITC amortization, normal weather, and normal power supply expenses .
  • O&M and depreciation were headwinds in Q4 and FY (wildfire mitigation, pension costs, higher plant-in-service), partly offset by property tax refunds and lower net power supply costs vs 2023 .
  • Balance sheet and financing: operating cash flow improved to ~$594M in 2024; external financing needs for 2025–2029 are ~$1.4B equity and ~$2.2B debt, with a target ~50/50 capital mix and ATM optionality .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerated load growth (prelim 5-year retail sales growth 8.3%), resource additions (wind/solar/battery), and major transmission (B2H, SWIP North) underpin a forecasted rate base CAGR of ~16.1% through 2029 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Continued strong customer growth and higher base rates supported Q4 and FY EPS; “IDACORP's earnings in 2024 benefited from continued strong customer growth, rate changes... and the use of tax credits” .
  • Reliability and execution: “We kept our customers' lights on 99.96% of the time despite a hot summer and increasing energy demand” (record summer and winter peaks) .
  • Resource and transmission progress: selected wind/solar/battery projects; B2H expected to break ground in summer 2025; SWIP North ownership and entitlement agreements secured .

What Went Wrong

  • O&M expense pressures: wildfire mitigation and pension costs elevated O&M by $13.2M in Q4 and $61.1M for FY, partially offset by base rate recovery .
  • Higher depreciation and interest expense due to increased plant-in-service and long-term debt balances, modestly diluting operating leverage .
  • Credit metrics remain near S&P downgrade thresholds (~13–14% FFO/debt), with 2025 expected to see some diminishment in cash flow and additional debt issuance .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Income ($USD Millions)$89.5 $113.6 $37.9
Net Income YoY ($USD Millions)+$20.9 vs $68.6 (Q2 2023) +$8.3 vs $105.3 (Q3 2023) +$6.6 vs $31.3 (Q4 2023)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.71 $2.12 $0.70
Diluted EPS YoY ($USD)+$0.36 vs $1.35 (Q2 2023) +$0.05 vs $2.07 (Q3 2023) +$0.09 vs $0.61 (Q4 2023)
Operating Drivers (Quarter)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Customer Growth Contribution ($USD Millions)+$5.1 +$7.4 +$1.9
Usage per Retail Customer Contribution ($USD Millions)+$6.2 +$3.1 +$2.5
Retail Revenue per MWh Contribution ($USD Millions)+$19.6 +$19.3 +$8.7
Other O&M Change ($USD Millions)+$13.8 +$20.3 +$13.2
Depreciation Change ($USD Millions)+$7.6 +$5.6 +$6.3
Other Operating Rev/Exp Net ($USD Millions)+$13.9 +$3.3 +$11.8
Non-operating Expense Net ($USD Millions)+$0.4 -$2.4 +$2.5
Tax/ADITC (Quarter)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Additional ADITC Amortization ($USD Millions)$7.5 $2.5 $7.3
Income Tax Expense Change DriversHigher pre-tax income offset by ADITC Higher pre-tax income offset by ADITC Prior-year plant tax adjustments; ADITC reversal in Q4 2023

Notes:

  • The company did not disclose quarterly revenues or margin metrics in the press release; S&P Global fundamentals retrieval was unavailable due to request limits during this session.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
EPS (Diluted)FY 2025N/A$5.65 – $5.85 New
Additional ADITC AmortizationFY 2025N/A$60 – $77M New
O&M ExpenseFY 2025N/A$465 – $475M New
Capex (ex-AFUDC)FY 2025N/A$1,000 – $1,100M New
Hydropower GenerationFY 2025N/A6.5 – 8.5 million MWh New
EPS (Diluted)FY 2024$5.35 – $5.45 (Q3 update) Actual $5.50 Above prior guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Load growth outlookPrelim 5-year retail sales growth ~7.7% (Q3); strong C&I pipeline including data centers, manufacturing; record peak loads 2025 IRP load forecast assumptions raised: 5-year retail sales +8.3% annually; continued large-load adds (Meta, Micron, Perpetua Resources) Accelerating
Resource plan (generation)Selected wind/battery PPAs and owned assets; first owned wind project; gas conversion of coal units; need for dispatchable resources in winter Adds 2025–2027 wind/solar/battery; reiterates winter dispatchable need; IRP to balance least-cost/risk Expanding mix; more dispatchable focus
TransmissionB2H progress; Gateway West coordination; SWIP North interest emerging B2H break ground summer 2025; SWIP North: ~11% ownership and ~11% capacity entitlement; construction expected ~2 years Advancing milestones
Regulatory strategyQ3: more frequent filings to reduce lag; period-end rate base explored 2024 ID limited-issue case approved (+$50.1M); 2025 ID general rate case planned; period-end rate base remains under consideration More frequent filings; mechanisms open
Financing and creditExternal needs 2025–2028: ~$1.3B equity, ~$2.0B debt (Q3); dividend growth slowed to reinvest Operating cash flow improved; 2025–2029 plan $1.4B equity/$2.2B debt; credit metrics hovering near thresholds; ATM forward sales $92M Maintaining flexibility; watch credit
HydrologyOutlook good heading into winter (Q3) Snowpack above average; 2025 hydro guide 6.5–8.5 MWh Favorable

Management Commentary

  • “IDACORP's earnings in 2024 benefited from continued strong customer growth, rate changes, spring and summer weather conditions that contributed to higher customer usage, and the use of tax credits under the company’s Idaho regulatory mechanism” – Lisa Grow (CEO) .
  • “We kept our customers' lights on 99.96% of the time despite a hot summer and increasing energy demand. In fact, we set new summer and winter peaks last year” – Lisa Grow (CEO) .
  • “If I had to pick 3 primary drivers for last year's results, I'd highlight strong customer growth, the rate changes and the Idaho ADITC regulatory mechanism” – Brian Buckham (CFO) .
  • “We will need additional rate filings to collect the level of revenue necessary... we plan to file another general rate case in Idaho in 2025” – Lisa Grow (CEO) .
  • “Our current projected rate base CAGR is 16.1%... before factoring in potential additional rate base from pending RFP outcomes” – Brian Buckham (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • ADITC replenishment: management considering replenishing the mechanism via the 2025 general rate case or separate filing; details in progress .
  • Credit metrics: 2024 ended near ~18% Moody’s cash flow pre-WC/debt and ~14.5% S&P FFO/debt; expect some diminishment in 2025 with added debt issuance ($350–$450M) and lower CFO; hovering near downgrade thresholds (~13–14%) .
  • Regulatory lag: period-end rate base remains possible in a broad case; commission open to mechanisms to narrow lag .
  • Large-load pipeline: interest across data centers, dairy biodigesters, base manufacturing; one signed project now included in early ramp; Perpetua Resources added to forecast .
  • SWIP North: ~11% ownership and ~11% capacity entitlement; construction start as early as 2025; payment at in-service; included in Capex plan .
  • Property tax refunds: ~$10M pretax benefit from multi-year valuation litigation settled in 2024 .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates (S&P Global) could not be retrieved during this session due to request-limit errors; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for Q4 2024. Values that would typically be cited from S&P Global are unavailable at this time.
  • The company did not disclose quarterly revenue or margin percentages in the press release; estimate comparisons should incorporate the FY 2025 guidance framework (EPS $5.65–$5.85; ADITC $60–$77M; O&M $465–$475M; Capex $1.0–$1.1B; Hydro 6.5–8.5M MWh) when updating models .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Earnings quality improving: Q4/FY EPS growth supported by structural drivers (base rates, customer growth) and moderated net power supply costs; property tax refunds aided Q4 .
  • Guidance sets a constructive FY 2025 base (EPS $5.65–$5.85) with explicit ADITC usage and normal-weather/power supply assumptions; monitor any filing to replenish ADITC capacity .
  • Capex and rate base expansion are substantial (5-year Capex ~$5.6B+; rate base CAGR ~16.1% through 2029), with optionality from pending RFP outcomes and large-load additions .
  • Regulatory cadence increasing: 2024 limited-scope case approved (+$50.1M); 2025 full general rate case planned; potential mechanisms (including period-end rate base) could reduce lag and support credit metrics .
  • Financing flexible but watch leverage: ATM program in place; forward sales executed (~$92M); CFO strength in 2024 reduces near-term needs; S&P FFO/debt near threshold necessitates disciplined filings and recovery .
  • Transmission projects (B2H, SWIP North) and dispatchable resources will be critical to meet winter peaks and reliability as C&I load accelerates; milestones tracking for summer 2025 B2H ground-breaking .
  • Hydrology tailwinds: above-average snowpack supports 2025 hydro range, potentially moderating power supply costs if conditions persist .